Who won, who voted, and how each group shifted since 2022 and 2024. Reported figures only, each labeled final, preliminary or projected.
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Every group from the demographic pages on one chart: its U.S. House margin in 2024 (hollow dot) and 2026 (solid dot). Above it, the AP count of called seats over time. The 2018–2026 tab shows each group's margin across five elections.
2026: the Voter Poll by SSRS (about 80,000 voters). 2018–2024: the NEP exit poll (via NBC for 2018, ABC for 2020–24). Seat counts: AP tallies, refreshed every 2 hours.
The polls publish single groups and a few pairs (gender × race, race × education), not every combination, so groups like "young Latino women" aren't available. All figures are U.S. House vote. 2026: Voter Poll by SSRS (prelim.); 2018–2024: NEP exit polls.
Final published and not expected to change. Preliminary reported but still being updated. Projected a news-desk call, not a certified result. Not yet reported no source has published it.
| Figure | Status | Data as of |
|---|---|---|
| Party control of House and Senate | Projected | AP, CNN, CBS, NBC calls overnight Nov. 3–4 |
| Seat counts & uncalled races | Preliminary · live | Nov. 4, 11:50 AM ET (reloads from live.json every 2 min) |
| Campaign money (page 4) | Final party totals · Preliminary outside · Not yet reported by race | FEC through June 30; OpenSecrets Oct. 5; FEC reports due Dec. 3 |
| Young voters by state (Senate states) | Preliminary | ABC Voter Poll state pages, Nov. 4, 1:39–1:41 AM ET |
| Young voters by group & community | Preliminary | CIRCLE, Nov. 4 |
| College-town counties & campus precincts | Not yet reported | Awaiting county / precinct canvass data |
| Governors (28 D – 20 R, 2 uncalled) | Preliminary | Al Jazeera count incl. leads, Nov. 4 |
| National turnout (49.4% of eligible) | Preliminary | U.S. Elections Project, Nov. 4, 2:52 AM ET |
| 2026 group-by-group vote (Voter Poll) | Preliminary | ABC Voter Poll page, Nov. 4, 3:55 AM ET |
| Ohio governor (Acton) | Projected | ABC/AP, Nov. 4, 5:58 AM ET; shares not yet reported |
| City council & mayoral counts | Preliminary | Partial counts, 10 PM–1 AM local time |
| Young men / young women vote (CIRCLE) | Preliminary | CIRCLE / IBTimes, Nov. 4 |
| 2022 and 2024 group-by-group vote | Final | Published NEP exit polls (House vote) |
| Youth turnout rate; certified totals | Not yet reported | CIRCLE says its estimate comes "in the coming days" |
Sources on the final slide. Survey weights are re-adjusted as votes are counted, so 2026 group numbers can move by a point or two.
68 races uncalled. CNN's count: 231–139 with 71 not projected. At least 25 seats flipped to Democrats.
As of: AP tally via Yahoo News, Nov. 4, 9:16 AM ET
Before: Republicans held the House (218–214 per AP).
2 uncalled (Mississippi, Alaska). Seven seats flipped D: KS, IA, TX, OH, ME, NC, SC. Details on the next slide.
Before: 53–45 Republican, plus 2 independents caucusing with Democrats. D total includes caucusing members.
2 uncalled. 36 governorships were on the ballot. Count includes candidates currently leading.
State legislatures: Democrats gained 5 chambers (NC House, WI Senate & Assembly, PA Senate, MN House); 35 still uncalled.
Sources: AP via Yahoo News, CNN, CBS 8, Northeastern, Al Jazeera, Ballotpedia, WHYY.
The 35 Senate seats on the 2026 ballot (33 regular, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio), by projected winner.
AP seat totals (Democrats 54 incl. caucusing independents, Republicans 44, 2 uncalled) and network projections for each flipped race.
Flipped from Republican to Democrat: Iowa, Kansas, Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, Texas. No seat flipped the other way. Alaska and Mississippi are uncalled.
Leaders can change as mail, absentee and provisional ballots are counted. We report conflicting counts rather than pick one.
| Senate | Result | Counted |
|---|---|---|
| Texas | Talarico (D) 55 – Paxton (R) 43 · flip | 93% |
| Ohio | Brown (D) 50 – Husted (R, inc.) 45 · flip | 99% |
| Maine | Jackson (D) 54 – Collins (R, inc.) 46 · flip | 86% |
| Georgia | Ossoff (D, inc.) 59 – Collins (R) 41 | 98% |
| Kansas | Hamilton (D) def. Marshall (R, inc.) · flip | — |
| N. Carolina | Cooper (D) def. Whatley (R) · flip | — |
| S. Carolina | Andrews (D) def. Graham (R) · flip | — |
| Michigan | El-Sayed (D) def. Rogers (R) | — |
| Florida | Moody (R, inc.) def. Nixon (D) | — |
| Governor | Projected result |
|---|---|
| Georgia | Lance Bottoms (D) def. Jackson (R) — first Black woman elected governor |
| New Mexico | Haaland (D) def. Hull (R) — first Native American woman elected governor |
| California | Becerra (D) def. Hilton (R) |
| Nebraska | Pillen (R) re-elected |
| Ohio | Acton (D) def. Ramaswamy (R) — first woman elected Ohio governor; first Democrat to win the seat in 20 years |
| Iowa | Republican nominee Lahn defeated |
Firsts: El-Sayed is the first Muslim elected to the Senate; Kansas elects its first Democratic senator since 1932; Illinois' Stratton makes three Black women serving in the Senate at once.
Vote shares: ABC results panel, Nov. 4, 3:55 AM ET. Calls: CBS, ABC, Al Jazeera, Northeastern, Yahoo/AP.
defeated Vivek Ramaswamy (R). First woman elected governor of Ohio and the first Democrat to win the seat in 20 years.
Vote shares: Not yet reported in sources reviewed. Ohio Senate on the same ballot: Brown (D) 50% – Husted (R) 45%, 99% counted. Pre-election polling average had Acton +4.7 (RealClearPolling).
| LA mayor | Raman 50.2 – Bass 49.8 · 2,057-vote gap, ~55% counted |
| LA Council D3 | Gaspar 50.5 – Girvan 49.5 · ~53% counted |
| LA Council D9 | Ugarte 55.6 – Mazariegos 44.4 · ~48% counted |
| Austin Council | Incumbents Qadri (D9, 53%), Alter (D5, 48.6%), Velásquez (D3, ~49%) lead; D1, D3, D5 likely Dec. 12 runoffs |
| San Diego D2 | Crosby (D) ~55 – Bailey (I) ~46 · early returns |
| Portland Council | Not yet reported |
LA: Basin.la, 1:04 AM PT Nov. 4. Austin: Community Impact, 10:30 PM CT Nov. 3. San Diego: KPBS, 10:03 PM PT Nov. 3. Council races are officially nonpartisan.
Classic bellwether counties (county-level 2026 vs 2024 comparisons): Not yet reported — no published county analysis found as of this update.
~124.3M ballots (preliminary estimate)
highest midterm rate since 1914 (50.4%)
above the 45.9M early votes in all of 2022
vs 12% in 2022 (CIRCLE). Share ≠ turnout rate.
Turnout rate = ballots cast ÷ citizens eligible to vote. "Share of votes" is different: what slice of all ballots came from a group.
The U.S. Elections Project estimates ballots from state reports overnight. It flags "a fair amount of uncertainty" while mail ballots in states like California and Washington are counted.
Turnout is on pace with the 2018 high-water mark. Young voters were a smaller slice of the electorate than in 2022, but CIRCLE says that does not by itself mean youth turnout fell.
voted Democratic for House. R share Not yet reported. In 2024, 56% of young men voted Trump (AP VoteCast, presidential).
voted Democratic for House. R share Not yet reported.
D–R. In 2024, 54% voted Trump (presidential).
D–R, 2026 House vote.
18–29s went from D+14 in the 2024 House vote to D+47. CIRCLE calls it the largest youth margin it has recorded; the old record was D+35 in 2018.
How voters 18–29 voted in each state's 2026 Senate race.
State samples of the same Voter Poll used nationally (about 1,000–5,200 voters per state). Smaller states mean wider error.
Thick bar = 2026 Senate vote. Thin purple bar = 2024 presidential vote among 18–29s in that state — a different race, shown only for direction.
Georgia's youngest voters went 84–15 for Ossoff; Texas 79–20 for Talarico, versus a near-even 50–48 for Harris in 2024. Iowa was the closest at 66–31.
Democratic · R Not reported
Democratic · R Not reported
2024: 60% Trump. 2022: 64% Republican House.
2024: 54% Trump, 44% Harris.
Democratic
Democratic
2026 House vote
*Source wording unclear
% Democratic
2026 House vote among young voters, split by community type, race, education and gender.
CIRCLE (Tufts) analysis of the national Voter Poll. 2024 comparisons are presidential votes.
Rural youth went from 60% Trump in 2024 to 57–37 Democratic for House — the narrowest youth group, but a reversal.
Not yet reported County and precinct results are still being counted; this panel fills when canvass data posts.
Not yet reported CIRCLE says its estimate comes in the coming days.
A nonpartisan data briefing on the 2026 U.S. midterm elections: who won, who voted, and how each group shifted since 2022 and 2024.
Theo Bower, an AI product architect in Scottsdale, Arizona, with a background in economics.
Only published figures. Every number is sourced, labeled final, preliminary or projected, and timestamped. Nothing is estimated or extrapolated. Where sources conflict, both are shown.
Every update and every correction is logged publicly on the change-log slide. If you spot an error, the fix and its date will appear there.
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This year every major network and the AP shared one survey of about 80,000 registered voters, interviewed online and by phone from Oct. 22 to Election Day. It merges the old exit poll and AP VoteCast into one, so NBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, Fox and AP numbers are the same data.
Margin of error ±0.6 pts for the full sample. Smaller groups are less precise; subgroup margins are not reported. Some questions went to half the sample (~39,000).
Interviewers surveyed voters as they left polling places, plus phone, text and email for early and mail voters, about 18,000–22,000 people nationally.
Because the method changed in 2026, a few points of any shift could come from the method rather than voters. Margins of error were not shown on the published pages.
"D+10" means Democrats got 10 points more of that group's vote than Republicans. It's the same idea as a point spread.
The % under each group name is that group's slice of all 2026 voters. Big margins in small groups move fewer total votes.
All years compare votes for U.S. House, so 2024 is House vote, not Trump vs. Harris.